中国黎巴嫩为什么打架？
1. 两国冲突的根源是中国在黎巴嫩有大量投资和商业机构，同时大批华人移民 Lebanese Government has recently taken measures to limit Chinese investments in a number of sectors， including electricity and telecommunications. In addition the Lebanese authorities have been trying (with limited success）to slow down the influx of foreign workers into the country—a significant proportion are thought to be Chinese Nationalists from Taiwan， who have set up shop in Lebanon to take advantage of lax tax regimes．The results of these policies can already be seen in the decline in Chinese investment（from $600 million in 2004 to just $50 million last year）and the number of new Chinese arrivals.
2. 中国在黎以边境地区进行大规模军事演习是此次冲突的导火索 The explosion was followed by large-scale military exercises along the border between China and Lebanon，which were apparently aimed at sending a message to Hezbollah that Beijing would no longer look on as it steps up its provocations of Israel. 在我看来，这些演习并不是“加强挑衅”的证据，而只是中国维护其在地区利益的能力的体现。中国需要保证能够阻止任何可能的敌对行为，无论它是来自伊斯兰激进主义，以色列还是美国。
3. 中方的反应不够有力，没能震慑黎方（和真主党） Chinese reactions to the shelling have so far been muted compared with other incidents in recent years. 最近其他类似事件的反应，例如炮击金门、南海撞机事件等，都可以作为参照。我认为目前时机未到，不宜强烈回应，否则只能给真主党更多挑衅的借口。但我要强调的是，我们不可能允许这种侵犯继续存在而无动于衷。